Republicans lead on tight results
The economy and abortion are the issues that determine the vote
The legislative or mid-term elections will be next November 8
The legislative elections or mid-term on November 8 are approaching and the surveys begin to emerge as a star element. At least in the weeks before an election that are already beginning to focus their results on the evolution of the economy and inflationby Republican voters, and in the abortion by the Democrats.
This is revealed by the latest survey conducted by the Washington Post-ABC Newswhich adds that 49% of voters registered prefers a Congress with conservative majority to control Biden while 45% lean towards the victory of progressives in supporting the implementation of Biden’s agenda. Another recent survey of CBSNews also places the Republicans one point ahead of Democrats (46 percent against 45 percent), in terms of final results, and five points above in voting intention (79% against 74%).
And all this in elections that will determine the control of the House of Representatives and the Senateover the next two years, and will mark the path of the 2024 presidential, at which point voters might once again have to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Something that none of them has decided yet and that will depend, to a large extent, on the results of November 2.
In this sense, following the results of the Post-ABC News survey, 48% of all registered voters favor Trump to the detriment of Biden, who obtained 46% support. The cause, among the voters of his own party, is the age that the current president would be at the time (82 years old at the beginning of what would be his second term). On the Republican side, neither do his supporters express majority support for Trump in the event that he were the final candidate for the presidency, since they are divided between 47% who support him and 46% who would prefer someone else.
What is clearer is that the economy is the engine of the conservative vote, which expresses concern about the increase in prices due to the fact that this accumulates an increase of 8.3% in the last 12 months, up to August. Although some products such as gasoline have fallen substantially in price, over the past 90 days, Americans’ ability to spend has decreased.
In fact, there is already talk of a possible recession assumed by the Federal Reserve, which will continue to raise interest rates to control inflation. The stock market has been affected in recent days and the declines have been significant, which could directly influence the election results if the situation does not improve in the coming weeks.
Economist/YouGov, Politico/Morning Consult, NBC News, Fox News, New York Times/Siena, and Harvard-Harris are using registered voters, and their results average out to Democrats leading by 2.83 percentage points.https://t.co/vM8HbSiW7p
— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) September 27, 2022
The progressives, and among them especially the younger women, are especially motivated by the decision of the Supreme Court, last June, to revoke the right to abortion. According to the Post-ABC poll, 64% of the US population is against the high court ruling, with only 56% of Republicans supporting the measure.
Throughout these months, conservatives they have tried to impose more restrictive measures against the voluntary interruption of pregnancy, in those states where they govern. They have even asked Congress to total ban throughout the national territory. But the truth is that the progressive bases have been spurred on by this issue, which could be one of the trump cards of the Democrats for the midterm elections.
Less than six weeks before fundamental elections for the future of the North American country, citizens are preparing to vote for the representatives of the two main parties, both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, with an underlying economic crisis and a war across the Atlantic. And knowing that the results will determine the future candidates for the presidency of the United States, in 2024. Rarely have midterm elections been so decisive for the future of Americans and, probably, of the rest of the world.