With eastern Ukraine in flames, will the invasion be a “memorial of Crimea”?

There are international fears that Moscow will use the tensions between Kiev and separatists loyal to it as a pretext for the “worst case scenario” and the invasion of Ukraine, where more than tens of thousands of soldiers are massed near the border, in an explosive situation that caused the worst crisis between the West and Moscow since the end of the Cold War.

The Russian aggression against Ukraine began on February 20, 2014, with a military operation to seize the Crimea, and later, Russian forces and militiamen loyal to it occupied parts of the Ukrainian “Donetsk and Luhansk” regions.

Strong European American reaction

Anas Al-Qassas, an expert in international and strategic affairs, said that the alliance and cooperation between Europe and America this time, despite the neutral German position, surprised Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the situation was not the same as it was in 2014, when he only found strong objection at the time from Washington.

Al-Qassas added, in an interview with “Sky News Arabia”, that the Russian crowds on the Ukrainian borders are not war crowds; Because it lacks many support services such as fuel, medical services, etc., Putin is provoking the West; To get the greatest gains from security guarantees to preserve its areas of influence.

He pointed out that the Russian withdrawal is real and not illusory, but what is happening in the Donbas region, eastern Ukraine, is the result of Putin, who follows an old strategy, which is to have the last blow and the last word, and for the process to end in his hand, not by European-American pressures, which are skirmishes that will not lead to war. It is usual in this region, but it witnessed an escalation during the past hours; To save the face of the Russian President.

Western moves

Europe and America are accelerating their movements in preparation for what they considered “an invasion that may happen at any time” by increasing military support to Ukraine as well as eastern European countries, as well as more pressure on Russia and its ally Belarus in order to prevent any military tension whose effects may have repercussions on the whole world.

In a joint statement, France and Germany called on Russia to pressure the Ukrainian separatists to de-escalate the situation. On Friday, US President Joe Biden held a meeting with a number of leaders of European countries, NATO and Canada; To discuss the developments of the crisis in Ukraine, stressing that “the risks of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine are very high and there are indications of that.”

The US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, also made a surprise visit to Poland, in which he spoke of a possible invasion and even expected that Poland would witness a wave of displacement from Ukraine, stressing the United States’ support for its allies in Eastern Europe and the provision of equipment to Ukraine to enable it to defend itself.

Ukraine tops the Munich talks

The crisis in Ukraine topped the speeches of all speakers at the largest international security event in Munich, which kicked off Friday with the participation of 25 presidents, prime ministers and more than 100 ministers, while Kamala Harris, US Vice President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz, and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said that “additional Russian forces were observed moving towards Ukraine’s borders, contrary to Russia’s claims of withdrawal. What is happening in eastern Ukraine follows a well-known scenario: they create false provocations, the announced withdrawal of forces did not happen, but on the contrary. From that, Russia may be trying to legitimize an attack.”

In turn, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warned of “catastrophic” repercussions, in the event of the outbreak of the “Russian-Ukrainian” crisis and the outbreak of war.

“With the heavy deployment of Russian soldiers in the vicinity of Ukraine, I am deeply concerned about the escalation of tensions and the rising speculation of a military conflict in Europe,” the UN official added, adding that if this happened, “it would be catastrophic.”

pseudo-science scenario

For its part, the German Foreign Ministry said that it is likely a Russian operation inside Ukraine, which resembles a coup “a false flag scenario, by Russia, in Ukraine, which is the most likely scenario than a full invasion.”

“Operation pseudoscience” is a political term meaning taking an action with the intent of concealing the actual source of responsibility and blaming another party.

“A full invasion scenario might be possible, but I’m also not sure that’s really the most likely scenario,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Barbock explained. Ukraine”.

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